Measles Outbreaks & Vaccine Policy
By Emma Ford, MPP, and Lauryn Walker, PhD. Published March 7th, 2025. Updated March 11th, 2025.
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Since the beginning of 2025, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has reported 3 measles outbreaks, totaling 222 cases and 2 deaths, with 95% of these cases occurring among unvaccinated individuals. By far the largest outbreak is currently occurring in Texas, where the Texas Department of Health and Human Services reports an ongoing outbreak with 159 individuals infected, 22 hospitalized and one fatality, and an additional outbreak in nearby Lea County, New Mexico where there have been 10 reported cases and 1 death. There are currently no reported cases in Virginia, although Virginia did have multiple smaller outbreaks in 2024.
With any disease outbreak, preventing the spread of measles outside of impacted counties requires a coordinated effort between both federal and state agencies. The CDC confirmed on March 4 that it is currently operating on the ground in Texas through its Epi-Aid support service. Epi-Aid is a rapid response effort conducted by the CDC’s Epidemic Intelligence Service to help with quick containment of health threats. Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Robert F. Kennedy Jr. confirmed in a Fox News Op-ed that he directed the CDC to provide comprehensive supports to Texas health authorities, including access to vaccines. Additionally, he reported that the CDC has updated its Measles guidance to include administration of Vitamin A as a therapeutic option. Sec. Kennedy re-emphasized that the decision to vaccinate is personal, but that vaccinations should be readily available as part of the management of the measles outbreak, protecting both individuals and communities from infection.
Does Virginia face any risks of an outbreak?
To achieve herd immunity against the measles disease, the CDC recommends a 95% vaccination rate. During the 2023-2024 school year, 94.2% of Virginia’s Kindergartners were vaccinated with a Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine. This is a 1.6% decrease from the 95.8% of Kindergartners in Virginia the year prior, and below herd immunity for the first time since 2019. Children with Medicaid or CHIP in Virginia have even lower rates of timely MMR vaccination, with 84.1% of children receiving their vaccines on time. While there have been no cases of measles reported in Virginia in 2025, there have been 2 cases of Mumps.
The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) tracks overall immunization status of school-aged children, and reported in their fall 2024 survey that 9.3% of Kindergartners, 7.8% of 7th graders, and 15.3% of 12th graders were considered to be inadequately immunized across Virginia’s public schools. Vaccination status also greatly varies by region.
Figure 1: Immunization rates of Virginia Kindergarteners by county (Fall 2024)
Source: The Virginia Department of Health’s Virginia Student Immunization Status Survey Dashboard, Fall 2024
What is VCHI doing?
VCHI is partnering with the Virginia Health Information to launch the Immutrack pilot to support pediatricians aiming to improve their vaccination rates for children 0-2 years of age. The pilot is a recommendation of the Virginia Task Force on Primary Care and provides monthly reports to providers on the vaccination status of their patient panel to identify gaps in vaccines.
How has federal vaccination policy changed under the Trump Administration?
COVID-19: On February 14, President Trump signed an Executive Order prohibiting federal funding for COVID-19 vaccine mandates in public schools. The EO directs HHS to end what the Trump Administration considers to be coercive mandates requiring students to be vaccinated for COVID-19 in order to attend school in person.
In Virginia: COVID-19 vaccines are not required in Virginia public schools.
Bird Flu: The Trump Administration announced that it is considering ending the $590 million contract awarded to Moderna to develop a human bird flu vaccine. The contract was awarded by the Biden Administration as a preventive measure for the bird flu outbreak impacting poultry and cattle across the United States.
In Virginia: There have been several cases of bird flu detected in VA, including commercial poultry in Accomack County and in the Richmond Metro Zoo. No cattle or human cases have been reported.
Influenza: Secretary Kennedy directed the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to cancel its upcoming March 13 Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meeting that planned to discuss guidance from the World Health Organization (WHO) on selecting the flu vaccine for the 2025 flu season. This cancellation followed a similar cancellation for a meeting led by the CDC. To develop the flu vaccine, the FDA, CDC, WHO, and other partners identify emerging influenza strains in late February/early March, following a rigid schedule so as to not risk delay or shortages of vaccines before flu season begins. In addition to these cancellations, the CDC has also been instructed to end its current advertising campaign to promote the flu vaccine.
In Virginia: Cancellation of advisory council meetings could pose a risk to the availability of flu vaccines in the fall in Virginia and the rest of the United States.
Changes to Vaccine Advisory Committees
Secretary Kennedy shared that he is currently evaluating potential “conflicts of interests” on HHS advisory committees, particularly the CDCs Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). However, it has not been confirmed if efforts have begun to make changes on these panels. During the Secretary’s confirmation hearing, he made commitments that he would not make changes to the CDC’s vaccine committee. ACIP is responsible for providing guidance on the childhood immunization schedule. The Secretary announced that he plans to investigate the schedule as well.
Conclusions
The Trump Administration’s vaccine policy plans are beginning to take shape with some efforts already enacted and others still being decided on. These decisions will continue to develop over the next few weeks and months in parallel to efforts to curtail the current Measles outbreak in Texas, as well as the potential threat of a larger bird flu outbreak across the United States. As Virginia’s MMR vaccination rates dip below recommended herd immunity levels, risk for outbreaks may increase. VCHI aims to improve vaccination rates through implementation of the Immutrack pilot.
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Related resources
- U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Making the Flu Vaccine
- New York Times. F.D.A. Cancels Meeting of Vaccine Experts Scheduled to Advise on Flu Shots
- Forbes. RFK Jr. Readies CDC For Changes In Vaccine Policies
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Measles Cases and Outbreaks
- Virginia Department of Health (VDH). Virginia Respiratory Immunization Dashboard
Updated 3/11/25:
On March 10, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) notified staff that it will be cancelling or cutting back over 40 grant awards to research related to vaccine hesitancy and uptake. Termination letters were sent to all relevant parties by close of business on Monday. Staff were instructed to use the following language:
“It is the policy of NIH not to prioritize research activities that focuses gaining scientific knowledge on why individuals are hesitant to be vaccinated and/or explore ways to improve vaccine interest and commitment. … Therefore, the award is terminated.”